Why is Data So Unreliable?

This post is about the information that is used by a supercomputer we all carry around with us (no, dummy, not your mobile phone. Not quite yet). It is about the idea that we all suffer from innumerable distortions and agendas. Even those who claim to have no agenda…well, that is the agenda. To pretend they are above it or haven’t got one is disingenuous and indicates a worrying lack of self-awareness.

This supercomputer is an organic machine, part of a larger organism with a wide range of sensors for input, it requires very careful maintenance, is easily damaged and easily corrupted, benefits from being made to regularly solve complex problems, has seemingly limitless storage capacity and is carried around on your shoulders.

In our rush to worship at the altar of AI, data, quantum computers, and machine learning we step neatly over the weirdness and utter unpredictability that this supercomputer (for ease of typing it shall henceforth be known as the brain) brings.

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Two straight lines, bent by the brain.

Sure, you can reduce all the external inputs into a measurable thing. The number of photons that hit the retina, the loss caused by an aged lens, the sensitivity of our fingers, sense of balance, the speed at which we solve problems and so on. Despite possessing a brain in all its judgemental and unpredictable glory we seem desperate to quantify and measure everything possible. For with the surety that comes from turning every conceivable bit of input into a number, then surely it must be within our ken to calculate the output? And if we don’t get it right then we can re-examine the computational processing algorithms and refine them until we come to as close an output that the programmer(s) expect. You see, there will be some parameters set for an acceptable/realistic/likely outcome somewhere in the brief, and usually, the aim is that the output matches the expectation.

The brain starts to gallop ahead, and I suppose this is what intrigues the scientists trying to create AI when the capacity for the random social variables and the filters they create comes in. The ability of the brain to make the weirdest associations from two apparently random bits of data always astonishes me.

For example: 30 years ago I shared a flat with Oliver Reed’s nephew, who apparently strove to exceed or at least replicate the lifestyle of his uncle. I was persuaded to take a tab of acid (LSD), which I tore in half because it scared me but, hey, peer pressure. This had a startling effect on me and I had to sit alone as it felt as if snooker balls of thoughts were cannoning into one another and going off at funny angles. To this day, if I see a snooker game I am reminded of that moment. I imagine it will be a very very long time before there will be a computer that can make those sort of weird cognitive leaps.

Data can be as much social and experiential as pure numbers fed into STATA, R or SPSS and manipulated in various approved ways. The data coming from the brain’s sensors is reliably distorted through one or several social lenses. Are you rich, poor, foreign, insecure, angry, a victim of something, in a wheelchair, aspirational, impaired, with a neurological condition (I have MS – have had for 26y)? Perhaps you are clinging to the notion that you are utterly impartial and free from an agenda and thus right? That is a powerful filter, often producing feelings of self-righteous indignation that can’t always be adequately expressed in 280 characters.

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It doesn’t stop this fellow from trying though.

When you are designing research, analysing research, presenting research, having research presented to you then try to remember that your brain and the recipient’s brain have different filters. They may seem externally similar, but at some point, that same information will hit a unique filter and the gap between intent and understanding soon becomes apparent.

The human desire to avoid cognitive dissonance is strong and mismanaged leads people to do terrible things to try and ‘fix’ it. Thankfully, we have a great ability to bend data to fit our pre-conceived notions of what feels right or to fill voids with made-up data. We ALL do it. I believe that the most we can do is to open up the analysis to others who manifestly do not share a similar agenda. As independent as possible and are trained to look for inconsistency, in the accrual of data or the motives of those who have handled it before you see/hear it.

So-called facts in newspapers are a good place to start asking why and how. In a commercial environment, people bandy around poor data and try to cover it with the force of personality of seniority. BBC Radio 4 has an excellent series (available for download) called Thought Cages that deals with the vagaries of the human brain in an amusing and engaging way.

We all lie and deceive all the time. It is in our nature. Sometimes you need a different variety of deceiver to look into your world and help you identify the deceits. I can help you, so contact me via LinkedIn.

 

Why is data dangerous?

In the words of @RorySutherland: “The data made me do it” is the 21st Century equivalent of “I was only obeying orders”. The growing power and influence of Data Science touches everyone’s lives. Sutherland also remarks: “Markets are complex and there can be more than one right answer. People in business prefer the pretence of ‘definitive’ because if you can show you’ve done the ‘only right thing’ you have covered yourself in event of failure”. These are all attempts at Plausible Deniability, and they are weak.

For the record, plain old data is not dangerous, you are unlikely to be hit by an errant Spearmans Rho, or a rogue Control variable that detached itself from an analysis. Data is just a record of the measurable values of something that has happened in the past. Digital exhaust, if you will. Like speed in a car, it is the inappropriate use of it that causes issues.

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Doing the right thing often sees people becoming  enslaved to Type 1 and Type 2 data, because they are the easy parts. You can hire experts, who can count well, use the software and understand how to tease out knowledge from the data points. What the majority can’t do, or may even do intentionally, is to manipulate the presentation, context and language used when presenting their findings. This is the Type 3 data I talk about, that isn’t traditional data as we know it.

Type 3 data is the really dangerous stuff. The reason for this is our complete fallibility as human beings. This is nothing to be ashamed of, it is how we are made and conditioned. It is in fact, entirely, boringly, and ordinarily normal. I was recently told by a lawyer – I say this because she is pretty well-educated – that all statistics are a lie. She then cited the famous Mark Twain (nicked from Disraeli) saying of, “There are lies, damn lies and statistics”, as if this were all the proof she required. Interestingly, when I challenged her on this and made a case for accurate uses of statistics she refused to even acknowledge this. She was wedded to her belief and I must be wrong. Case closed.

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I think immersion in courtroom rhetoric may have been getting the better of her. However, this goes to show the just how dangerous we humans can be. Imagine being a client with a lawyer whose dogmatism may cause them to overlook or be able to question relevant statistical evidence? All stemming from a strongly held view that all statistics are lies. Professor Bobby Duffy recently wrote an excellent book called Perils of Perception and on p.100 he shows just how problematic this view can be.

My point is: If a person who is well-educated, and practising in a profession like law, can hold such a position, then it is not beyond any of us to do so, quite unwittingly. Until one is more familiar with the behavioural biases that we are all susceptible to, the way Type 1 and Type 2 data can be mis-represented (Type 3 data) and how that uses our in-built foibles to generate a reaction.

This is where someone who understands both of these areas, and can blend that knowledge into an expertise which is useful, can help you. When important decisions on strategy, direction and spending  are conditional on interpreting data from others, you want to get it right first time. If not, you’ll be forced into, “The data made me do it”, and that rarely ends well.

burning money